Research & Ideasquirq

What it calculates

The measures the ledger yields: QER, quirq velocity, the intervention rate, their trajectories, and the energy bridge.

One ledger of units, and every number an operator needs falls out. This page is what those numbers mean; the mechanics that produce them are in how to calculate it.

Portfolio metrics

Over the units in an accounting window T:

QER(T)  =  Σ Q(u) / Σ C_total(u)          quirq efficiency ratio (the headline)
QV(T)   =  Σ Q(u) / |T|                   quirq velocity (throughput in value)
IR(T)   =  |{u : V(u) < τ}| / N           intervention rate (the trust signal)

QER is dimensionless and currency-independent: comparable across teams, vendors, and models. It is what "AI ROI" should have meant. IR is measured for free by the same machinery, and because failures localize to named checks, it arrives with its diagnosis attached.

The time axis

Two dynamics move the trajectory in opposite directions, and both must be read.

Tenure: cost per quirq decays toward the execution floor
lower is better

Tenure pushes cost per quirq down. Every unit's token bill hides two costs: doing the work, and figuring out what the work is (reading the codebase, rediscovering conventions, inferring what this owner means by done):

C(uₜ) = c_exec + k · H(intent | Mₜ)

c_exec   the execution floor (irreducible)
H(·|Mₜ)  residual intent uncertainty, given environment memory Mₜ
k        tokens burned per unit of uncertainty resolved

A persistent environment deposits every completed unit into memory (files touched, accepted definitions of done, corrections that survived review), so residual uncertainty and cost fall monotonically toward the floor; a fresh context pays cold start every time. It is what every manager knows about contractors: the tenth job is cheaper than the first because they stop asking questions they know the answers to. The environment is what gives an agent tenure.

Tokens per similar unit of work
without an environmentwith a persistent environment
unit 1 (cold start: both pay full intent cost)unit 50 (environment pays only the execution floor)

Extending the worked micro-benchmark to 50 sequential similar units (cold-start intent cost 2,600 tokens over a 3,000-token floor, decaying as memory accumulates):

Unit 1Unit 10Unit 25Unit 50Total
Fresh context5,6005,6005,6005,600308,000
Persistent environment5,6003,6533,3773,250181,260
Savings0%35%40%42%41%

Unit 1 costs the same either way, so the benefit is invisible in a demo and decisive in production, and it is durable because it comes from eliminated uncertainty, not a better model. This inverts procurement logic: the asset is not the agent you rent but the environment you own, because the environment is where the cost curve lives.

Goodhart drift: the audit gap widens unless checks are re-hardened
higher is better

Goodhart drift pushes measured value up, falsely. Agents find the shortest path to green. The observable is the audit gap A(T): re-verify a random sample against gold checks held outside the production environment. The honest headline is audit-corrected:

QER*(T) = QER(T) · (1 − A(T))       report the trend, not the level

When QER* rises while IR falls, AI is genuinely compounding in the company. When QER rises but QER* stalls, the checks are being farmed. When both stall while token volume grows, the company has bought an electricity bill.

The bridge to energy

Because the cost model retains token counts, physical accounting composes with value accounting:

quirqs / kWh        with E ≈ Σ tokens · e_tok
quirqs / tonne CO₂  via grid carbon intensity

Illustrative: a month at 2.1B tokens with e_tok = 1.5 J/token is ~875 kWh; if the month minted 148,000 quirqs, the plant runs at ~169 quirqs/kWh. Not "we used less AI" but "we delivered more verified value per unit of energy."

These are the claims the measures rest on. Next: validation, hypothesis-first.